基于马尔可夫的澴东湖生态安全状态判别研究

Eco-environmental Security Status-quo of Huandong Lake Based on Markov Chain

湖泊生态安全中存在许多不确定因素,基于对澴东湖流域水文、生态环境的长期调查和多边形生态安全状态判别方法,选取社会经济与生态环境的6个层面21个影响因子,构建了澴东湖多边形指数生态安全判别体系。建立五元联系数评价模型对澴东湖B的现状进行评价,同时结合马尔可夫链建立预测模型对湖B 2016年的生态安全状态进行预测。将历史数据与预测结果进行对比,验证预测模型的有效性,为澴东湖B的长期安全监测与管理提供一定的理论支撑。

There are many uncertain factors in the ecological security of lakes. Based on the long-term research on hydrology and ecological environment of Huandong lake watershed and the ecological security discriminant method of polygon index,select twenty one indicators of social economy and ecological environment from six levels to bulid the eco-environmental security discrimination system of polygon index of Huandong lake.The evaluation model of five numbered connection number was established to evaluate the status-quo of Huandong lake B,and Markov chain was combined to established the prediction model to predict the ecological security condition of lake B in 2016. Camparing the historical data and forecast results to verify the validity of the prediction model,and provide theoretical support for safety monitoring and management of Huandong lake B.