油气管道风险的模糊综合评价方法探讨

FUZZY INTEGRATIVE ASSESSMENT OF OIL & GAS PIPELINE RISKS

油气管道风险评价是一种以数据资料、运行经验、直观认识为基础的科学方法。通过风险的量化来进行分析比较 ,为管道风险管理的科学决策提供可靠的依据 ,以能够合理地运用有限的人力、物力和财力等资源条件 ,采取最为适当的措施 ,达到最为有效地减小损失、提高效益、保护环境等目的。文章在简要介绍油气管道风险评价技术现状的基础上 ,从评价中存在的客观困难和现行方法的局限性两方面阐述了进行油气管道风险的模糊综合评价的必要性 ,介绍了模糊综合评价的主要流程和主要方法 ,并指出油气管道风险评价技术的发展方向。

Assessment of oil & gas pipeline risks is a scientific method basing on the acquired data,the operation experience and the objective recognition.With analysis and comparison of risks' quantification the reliable ground will be provided for the scientific decision making of pipeline risk management,the target of which is to effectively reduce loss,improve efficiency,and protect environment by taking appropriate measures and good use of the limited resource of human,material and money.According to the objective difficulties and the limitation of the existed assessment methods of oil & gas pipeline risks,the paper explains the necessity of fuzzy integrative assessment of oil & gas pipeline risks,describes the main procedures of the fuzzy integrative assessment and points out the developing trend of the method.