电力系统短期负荷的特征指数相空间重构预测法

Short-term load forecasting using restructuring algorithm of phase space based on characteristic index

针对电力负荷变化的特点 ,提出一种采用特征指数的混沌预测方法 ,采用相空间重构和局域近似原理建立预测模型 ,较好地考虑了电力系统负荷波动的日周期性 ,具有良好的预测效果 ,最大负荷、最小负荷的预测精度较高 。

Aiming at the characteristics of load,a short term load chaos forecasting technique based on characteristic index is presented, which adopted restructuring algorithm of phase space and Location Approximate Approach.The method takes circle rhythm into account.The results of the experiment,especially the forecasting precision of the peak and the valley of load,are satisfactory.