短期强降水面雨量预报与T213产品的天气学释用

Short-range Forecast of Heavy Area Rainfalland Interpretation of T213′s Products

通过对长江上游六大流域 1 971～ 2 0 0 0年 50mm以上强降水面雨量 1 0 0个个例进行天气分析 ,归纳总结了各流域 2 4小时预报指标。将预报指标落实到T2 1 3产品对应时次、对应要素的预告场上 ,经计算机自动进行指标判别 ,从而作出六大流域 2 4小时、4 8小时强降水面雨量预报。 2 0 0 2年 6～ 1 0月进行了逐日业务试运行 ,结果表明 ,对强降水面雨量有较好的预报能力 ,T2 1

One hundred cases of heavy area rainfall greater than 50mm from 1971 to 2000 in the six drainage areas of the upper reaches of the Changjiang River are analyzed , the 24hr′s forecast indexes of every drainage area are developed. Automatic differentiating T213′s forecast products correspond to the indexes by computer, the 24hr′s?48hr′s forecast of heavy area rainfall in the six drainage areas are made. Operation using from June to July in 2002 was run. The results show that the method has the better forecasting ability to heavy area rainfall, and the meteorological interpretation of T213′s products is feasible.