区镇电力需求中期预测模型的研究

Study on composite model for medium-term power demand forecasting in towns

提出一种用于区镇级小区域电力需求中期预测组合模型,引入专家系统方法,结合常用预测方法,使预测模型能适应含跃变转折变化时期的电力需求预测。最后,通过某镇供电量增长实例检验组合预测模型的适应性。检验结果是该组合预测模型在供电量增长转折处出现较大误差,但仍小于10%,用于区镇电力需求中期预测是合适的,其精度可满足区镇电网规划设计要求。

A composite model for mediumterm electric power demand forecasting in towns is put forward. Combined with expert systems and routine forecasting methods, the model adapts to electric power demand forecasting with turning points. A case is used to verify the adaptability of the model, and the result shows a big error (less than 10% yet) at the turning point of power supply increase. A conclusion is drawn that the model fits for the purpose and its accuracy fulfills the design requirements of power network planning in towns. 