全球化的冲突

Clash of Globalizations

关于当今国际关系的现状 ,存在不少理论模式 :“历史终结论”宣布了意识形态冲突的终结和政治经济自由主义的全面胜利 ;“文明冲突论”预言国际暴力活动将主要发生在文明之间而不是在国家或意识形态之间 ;“现实主义学派”则坚持认为自修昔底德和马基雅维利以来国际关系本质上并没有变化 ;“全球化论者”宣称全球化将迫使观点不同的人都看到全球化必将带来和平与民主。这些理论模式给我们很多启示 ,但都难以解释三个客观事实 :第一 ,强权之间的对立 (和小国家利用这些对立的能力 )并没有消失 ;第二 ,如果说国家之间的战争正在减少 ,那么国家内部的战争却有增无减 ;第三 ,国家的对外政策不仅取决于诸如经济和军事力量这样的现实主义的地缘政治因素 ,而且也取决于国内政治和领导人的个性。在过去的 10年里 ,国际关系紧张的主要根源是国家内部 (和国家体制 )的分裂与经济。

What is the state of international relations today?A number of models attracted great attention in the 1990s:Francis Fukuyama declared the end of ideological conflicts and the triumph of political and economic liberalism;Samuel Huntington predicted that violence resulting from international anarchy and the absence of common values and institutions would erupt among civilizations rather than among states or ideologies;Realist orthodoxy insists that nothing has changed in international relations since Thucydides and Machiavelli;Thomas Friedman sees in globalization the dawn of a new era that will force contentious publics to understand that the logic of globalization is peace and democracy.These models,however,come up hard against three realities:First,rivalries among great powers have most certainly not disappeared;second,if wars between states are becoming less common,wars within them are on the rise;third,states'foreign policies are shaped not only by realist geo political factors but also by domestic politics.In the past decades,the dominant tensions resulted from the clash between the fragmentation of states and the progress of economic ,cultural,and political integration in other words,globalization.Terrorism is the bloody link between interstate relations and global society.