1.5℃温控目标下地球工程对中国气温影响的区域差异预估

Prediction of Regional Differences in the Influence of Geo-engineering on Temperature in China under 1.5 ℃ Temperature Control Target

随着全球气候变暖进一步加剧,《巴黎协定》制定的1. 5℃温控目标面临的挑战愈发严峻。采用BNU—ESM模式的地球工程(G4试验)和非地球工程(RCP4. 5)情景下的2010～2099年日值气温数据,对比分析了地球工程实施中(2020～2069年)、实施后(2070～2099年)和整个研究时段(2010～2099年)对中国气温的影响及其区域差异。结果表明:(1)地球工程的实施显著降低了中国年均气温,尤其是地球工程实施的2020～2069年,多数地区的降温幅度超过了0. 75℃,有效缓解了全球气候变暖,地球工程实施前后的对比表明地球工程能够使中国多数地区降低1. 5℃,地球工程有助于《巴黎协定》1. 5℃温控目标的实现;(2)地球工程的实施并未改变中国年均气温气候态和波动特征的空间分异格局,却改变了年均气温变化趋势的空间分异格局,地球工程的实施对中国北方地区年均气温波动特征的影响要高于南方地区;(3)地球工程实施的2020～2069年使得中国多数地区的年均气温趋势减少,减少幅度超过了0. 3℃/10 a,同时地球工程实施前后中国年均气温变化趋势差异明显;(4)地球工程实施结束后并未产生气温的报复性反弹,且对依赖于可预测气候周期的部门生产运营不造成根本性的影响。地球工程对气候影响的讨论,有助于人类科学认识应对气候变暖的多样性措施。

As global warming further intensifies,the challenges facing the 1.5 C temperature control target set by the Paris Agreement are becoming more and more serious.In this research,the daily temperature datasets during2010 to 2099 of geo-engineering(G4 experiment)and non-geo-engineering(RCP 4.5)scenarios based on BNUESM model are used to compare and analyze the effects of geo-engineering implementation phase(2020~2069),after implementation(2070~2099)and the whole research period(2010~2099)on the temperature in China and their regional differences.The results show that:The implementation of geo-engineering will have significantly reduced the annual average temperature in China.Especially in the 2020~2069 years during the implementation of geoengineering,most regions in China have cooled by more than 0.75℃,which effectively alleviates global warming.Before and after the implementation of geoengineering,the comparison shows that geoengineering can reduce most parts of China by 1.5℃.Geo-engineering is conducive to the realization of the 1.5℃temperature control target of the Paris agreement.Secondly,the implementation of geo-engineering has not changed the spatial pattern of climatic state and fluctuation characteristics of annual mean temperature in China.But it has changed the trend of spatial pattern of annual mean temperature in China.The implementation of geo-engineering has a greater impact on the annual mean temperature fluctuation in northern China than in the south.Thirdly,the implementation of geoengineering in 2020~2069 has reduced the trend of annual average temperature in most areas of China by more than 0.3℃/10 a.Meanwhile,there is a significant difference in the trend of annual average temperature between before and after the implementation of geo-engineering in China.Fourthly,there was no retaliatory rebound in temperature after the completion of geoengineering,and no fundamental impact on the production and operation of departments that depend on predictable climate cycles.Discussions on the impacts of geoengineering on climate are conducive to a scientific understanding of the diversity of measures to address climate warming.