智库影响力及其影响机理研究——基于39个中国智库样本的实证研究

Study on the mechanism of the impacts and think tanks influence:Based on the empirical research on 39 samples of Chinese think tanks

十八届三中全会提出"加强中国特色新型智库建设,建立决策咨询制度",中国智库因此迎来发展的"黄金时代"。但与发达国家的智库相比,中国智库在公共领域的影响力仍有待提升。本文根据智库影响对象的不同将智库影响力划分政策影响力、学术影响力及社会影响力三个维度,选取了中国39家智库作为样本,对其影响力进行了测算;并实证分析智库规模与智库影响力关系,以及智库性质变量的调节效应与智库产出的中介效应。结果表明智库规模对智库影响力有显著影响,且智库产出对智库规模与智库影响力的中介效应显著,而智库性质对智库产出对智库规模——智库影响力中介效应的调节效应不显著;据此,本文提出政策建议。

In 2013,CPC Third Plenary Session released The Decision of the CPC Central Committee on Several Important Issues of Comprehensively Deepening,in which the CPC decided to ‘strengthen Chinese feature of the new think tank construction and establish the decision- making consultation system'. Thus,Chinese think tanks step into golden times. Compared to think tanks in developed countries,Chinese think tanks lack influence in the public domain. Based on the impact of different objects,this paper chooses 39 think tanks as samples and measures the think tanks influence in three dimensions,including policy influence,academic influence and social influence. Then the paper also analyzes empirically the relationship between think tanks scale and think tanks influence which also include the moderating effect of think tanks characteristic and the mesomeric effect of think tanks products. The result shows that think tanks scale has the significant effects on the think tanks influence. And the mesomeric effect of think tanks products influenced the relationship between think tanks scale and think tanks influence,but the moderating effect has no obvious effect on the relationship between think tanks products,think tanks scale and think tanks influence. This paper gives some advice on how to accelerate pace of development of think tanks.