中国能源安全系统的仿真模拟

A study on simulating energy security system of China

能源供应安全是国家社会经济可持续发展的基础,直接关系着国家的稳定和谐。近年来,随着能源供需矛盾的日益严重,区域能源安全研究逐渐成为学术界的热点问题之一。本文运用系统动力学理论构建中国能源安全的系统动力学模型,通过对产业经济、资源、人口、环境子系统参数的调控,预测能源生产量、能源消耗量、能源供需缺口与能源战略储备等变量的动态变化,模拟得到三种我国能源安全系统的发展模式。研究结果表明:保持调控参数不变,我国现有能源安全系统的稳定性将难以持续;通过参数的调整,模拟得到方案1与方案2下的能源安全系统发展模式。相比方案current,从长远上看,因国家战略储备的增加,方案1下的能源安全系统稳定性较好;从短期角度看,方案2中的能源生产量持续增加,保证了能源安全系统的稳定性,但从长远上看,国家战略储备的减少将会威胁我国能源安全系统的稳定性。根据所得结果,提出建立国家能源统计管理账户、强化能源战略储备以及加快新能源与再生能源使用等措施以保证我国能源安全系统的稳定、健康发展。

Energy supply security is the basis for sustainable development of national economy,and directly related to the country’s stability and harmonization. In recent years,with the contradiction between supply and demand of energy resources being more serious,energy security gradually becomes the focus of academic research problems. This paper uses the System Dynamics Theory to construct the energy security system dynamics model of China,through regulating parameters of the industry,economy,population and environment subsystem in order to predict the dynamic changes of variables such as energy production,energy consumption,energy supply- demand gap and energy strategic reserve,and draws three development patterns of energy security system. The research results show that: if the control parameters are kept unchanged,the stability of Chinese current energy security system will be difficult to sustain; and if the control parameters are adjusted,we simulate two development patterns of energy security system under Scenario 1 and Scenario 2. Compared with scenario‘current’,from a long- term perspective,the stability of energy security system under Scenario 1 is better because of an increase of the national energy strategic reserve; in the short term,the stability of energy security system under Scenario 2 is better due to continuous increase of energy production,but in the long run,the stability of Chinese energy security system will be threatened because of the national energy strategic reserve reduction. According to the results,the paper puts forward some measures for developing the energy security system stably and healthily,such as establishing national energy statistical management account,strengthening energy strategic reserve and speeding up new energy and renewable energy use.