基于VAR模型的绿色增长模式与企业成长互动关系研究

A study on the interaction between green growth pattern and enterprise growth based on the VAR Model

随着经济增长方式的转变,绿色增长已经成为未来全球经济增长的主要模式。企业是一个国家或地区经济增长的主要载体,绿色增长的实施对于企业成长作用决定了经济增长的走势。因此识别绿色增长与企业成长之间的动态交互关系,可以为企业经济增长提供理论指导。本文选取1998-2012年间绿色增长与企业成长相关指标,建立绿色增长与企业成长的VAR模型,运用协整检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解方法分析了绿色增长与企业成长的内在联系、互动机制与发展趋势。分析结果表明:绿色增长与企业成长在短期内处于波动状态,但存在着长期的均衡关系,即短期内绿色增长的实施会使企业成长减缓,但长期来看,企业成长将在绿色增长的作用下达到一个更高水平的发展阶段。同时,企业的成长也会促进绿色增长的有效实施,最后二者进入良性互动发展状态。

With the transformation of economic growth mode,green growth has become a main pattern of global economic growth in the future. The enterprise is the main carrier of economic growth in the country or region,and the implementation of green growth for the enterprise growth will determine the economic growth trends. Therefore,identifying the dynamic interactive relationship between green growth and enterprise growth can provide theoretical guidance for the enterprise economic growth. This paper selects related indicators of green growth and enterprise growth in the period of 1998-2012,builds up the VAR model of green growth and enterprise growth,analyzes internal relations,interaction mechanisms and development trends of green growth and enterprise growth with co-integration test,impulse response function and variance decomposition method. The result shows that green growth and enterprise growth are both in the fluctuant state in the short term,but there is a long-term equilibrium relationship. In other words,the implementation of green growth would make the enterprise growth slow down in the short term.However,under the role of the green growth,the enterprise growth will reach a higher development stage in the long term. Meanwhile,enterprise growth can also promote the implementation of green growth effectively,and both of them will finally reach a positive interaction of development status.