美军重大国防采办项目技术成熟评价的价值分析研究

Value analysis for technology readiness assessments of U. S. major defense acquisition programs

技术成熟度评价(TRA)方法被美军广泛应用于重大国防采办项目(MDAPs)管理,然而由于实施成本昂贵和效果欠佳等原因,近年来各方开始反思TRA的价值和效果。本文从经济学的视角,综合利用收益比、投资回报率、净现值法、实物期权法等数学方法,构建了可量化评估MDAPs实施TRA的价值分析模型,并以2003-2016年美军MDAPs为对象进行实例分析后认为,技术成熟度直接影响MDAPs的绩效产出,在MDAPs中实施TRA具有较高的投资回报率和显著的经济效益。

Technology readiness assessments( TRA) model has been widely used in U. S. Major Defense Acquisition Programs( MDAPs),but some debate about the effects on TRA has come out because of the expensive costs and worse outcomes. From an economic point of view,a value analysis model for MDAPs-TRA has been established in this paper,including benefits cost ratio,return of investment,net present value,and real option method. Finally,taking 2003-2016 MDAPs data for example,the value for MDAPs-TRA has analyzed and found out that technology maturity directly affecting the acquisition outcomes and applying TRA in MDAPs has high Return of Investment( ROI) and enormous economic benefits.