基于突变理论的科技评价方法初探

Primary study on evaluation method of science and technology based on Catastrophe Theory

探讨一种基于突变理论的针对颠覆性技术的科技评价方法。运用数学建模法即尖点型突变方程构建颠覆性技术的预测模型,其新颖之处是以创新发展为评价导向,在现有企业层次微观模型基础上提出国家层次宏观模型的变量方案。研究结果是以科技替代率为势函数行为变量、以科技评价引导的社会认可度和创新驱动发展力度为控制变量的新型预测模型。本文的结论是:如果以替代率为果、认可度和创新力为因的颠覆性技术演化过程具有如模型所示的量化关系,那么以创新驱动发展为导向的科技评价便对技术发展临界状态的调控具有重要作用。本文为科技评价和创新政策决策等领域研究者提供理论参考。

This paper explored an evaluation method of science and technology based on catastrophe theory. The research method of mathematical modeling was adopted and the cusp catastrophe function was used for building a forecasting model of disruptive technology. The new method was guided by innovation-led development and changed the existing company-level micro model into a national-level one by providing choices of variables. The result was that the new catastrophe model was composed of three variables: rate of technological replacement as behavioral parameter in potential function,degree of social acceptance and strength of innovation as control factors. The conclusion was that if the three key variables revealed the quantitative relations in evolution of technology in which replacement is seen as result while acceptance and innovation degrees as causes,then it can be affirmed that evaluation of science and technology guided by innovation-led development should be vital to management of critical state of disruptive technologies. The paper could be a theoretical reference to researchers in the field of evaluation of science and technology and innovation policy making.