创新数量、创新质量对外贸出口影响效应研究

A research on the influence effect of innovation quantity and innovation quality on foreign trade export

从创新数量、创新质量角度分析创新对外贸出口的作用机制与效应具有重要意义。本文认为创新数量的微观作用机制包括提高企业竞争优势、降低产品生产成本,宏观作用机制包括加强国际贸易基础设施建设、培养创新人才、培育创新文化等。创新质量的微观作用机制包括有利于企业形成蓝海战略、企业创新成果的良性反馈效应,宏观作用机制包括催生新兴产业、提升全球价值链、改善国家贸易环境等等。在此基础上,基于中国高技术产业统计年鉴数据,采用面板数据模型和面板门槛回归模型分析了创新数量、创新质量对外贸出口的影响效应。研究结果表明:创新数量对外贸出口呈现U型曲线。并且具有外贸出口门槛效应,即随着外贸出口门槛水平增高,创新数量贡献的弹性增大;创新数量存在“U型陷阱”与“低外贸出口”效应;创新质量水平较低,与外贸出口无关。

The theory on the contribution of technological progress and innovation to foreign trade export has become increasingly mature after a long-term development.Both theoretical researches and successful experiences of international trade of developed countries show that technological innovation is an important driving force to promote foreign trade export.Either from the macro level or from the micro level of enterprises,innovation can be further analyzed from the two dimensions of quantity and quality,where innovation quantity represents the scale of innovation and innovation quality represents the level of innovation.From the perspective of innovation quantity and innovation quality,this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of innovation on export trade,finds its law and characteristics,and analyzes the existing problems,and this research can not only deepen technological innovation and international trade theory,but also help government departments to introduce relevant policies.It is of great theoretical and practical value to enhance China’s level of innovation and improve the competitiveness of China’s export trade.From the current research,the theoretical research on the impact of technological progress and innovation on international trade is relatively mature.Most studies find that there is a positive correlation between technological innovation and foreign trade export.Only a few studies have found that innovation has little to do with foreign trade.The mechanism of innovation on foreign trade exports mainly includes improving competitive advantage,reducing fixed export costs,improving production efficiency,as well as product innovation,process innovation,process innovation and so on.With regard to the problem of innovation in international trade,many researches are involved.In general,further in-depth research is necessary in the following aspects.First,because of the analysis of the relationship between innovation and foreign trade export and the mechanism of action from the perspective of innovation quantity and innovation quality is relatively lacking,it is necessary to further research the relationship and mechanism.Second,how does the quantity and quality of products affect the export of foreign trade?Is the relationship between quantity and quality linear or nonlinear?Why is that?Third,under different levels of foreign trade exports,is there a nonlinear relationship between the quantity of products and the coefficient of elasticity of product contribution to exports?This paper holds that the micro mechanism of innovation quantity includes improving the competitive advantage of enterprise,reducing the production cost.The macro mechanism of innovation quantity includes strengthening the infrastructure construction of international trade,cultivating innovative talents and cultures,etc.The micro mechanism of innovation quality includes positive feedback which benefits companies to form the Blue Ocean Strategy and companies’innovations.The macro mechanism of innovation quality includes creating new industries,promoting global value chain,improving national trade environment,etc.On that basis,this paper analyzes the mechanism of innovation quantity and innovation quality on foreign trade and puts forward five hypotheses.Hypothesis 1:The number of innovations has a positive effect on foreign trade exports,and its elasticity coefficient is positive.Hypothesis 2:The amount of innovation presents a nonlinear characteristic to the export contribution which presenting a U-shaped curve relationship.Hypothesis 3:Under different foreign trade export levels,the elasticity coefficient of innovation quantity increases with the increase of foreign trade export threshold.Hypothesis 4:Innovation quality has a positive effect on foreign trade exports,and its elasticity coefficient is positive.Hypothesis 5:The quality of innovation has the threshold effect of foreign trade export level which the higher the level of foreign trade export,the greater the elasticity of innovation quality contribution to foreign trade exports.Subsequently,in the series of equations of foreign trade export influencing factors and threshold regression models,the paper uses high-tech industry export delivery value to represent foreign trade export value,using total assets to represent capital,and the average number of employees to represent labor,high-tech industry statistical yearbook.Raw data for corporate R&D funding and government R&D funding are available.With regard to the selection of innovation quantity and innovation quality variables,this paper borrows new product sales revenue to represent the number of innovations,and borrows the proportion of invention patents in patent applications to express the quality of innovation.All the data in this paper comes from the China High-tech Industry Statistical Yearbook.Considering that the total assets data will be released in 2011,the data time range is from 2011 to 2015.The Tibet area is deleted due to the lack of data.Furthermore,the paper uses panel data model to verify the comprehensive influence effect of innovation quantity,innovation quality and foreign trade export,and analyzes the nonlinear effect of innovation quantity and innovation quality on foreign trade export through panel threshold regression model.The research results indicate that the relation between innovation quantity and foreign trade export presents the U-type curve.There is a threshold effect on foreign trade export.As the threshold level of foreign trade export increased,the elasticity of the contribution of innovation quantity increased.However,there is a“U-type trap”effect and“low foreign trade export”effect on innovation quantity.That is,when the number of innovations is at the left end of the U-shaped curve,as the number of innovations increases,the elasticity coefficient of the contribution of innovation quantity to foreign trade exports is gradually decreasing.The empirical research shows that the area at the left end of the U-shaped curve accounts for almost one-third.This point is similar to the middle-income trap.If China’s high-tech enterprises cannot complete the transformation and upgrading in time and accelerate the innovation-driven development,they may fall into the dilemma of more innovations and lower innovation performance.It is necessary to increase R&D investment as soon as possible and rush out of the“U-shaped trap”as soon as possible.In addition,the level of innovation quality is low and has nothing to do with foreign trade exports.This indicates that China’s level of innovation quality is low,and it is not enough to play an important role in foreign trade.Strengthening basic research and original innovation investment is fundamental measures to improving the quality of innovation.