基于概率积分法的某煤矿地表塌陷区范围预测

Prediction of the Earth Surface Subsidence Scope of a Coal Mine Based on the Probability Integral Method

为了科学合理地预测地表沉陷范围,结合矿山开采沉陷理论,应用概率积分法,以某煤矿周围的实测数据为例,建立基本数学预测模型,对该矿山塌陷区范围进行预测。将预测结果与实测结果进行对比分析,预测结果基本覆盖全部实测结果,并有一定的安全冗余,故概率预测法能在一定程度上满足沉陷区预测要求,为塌陷区预测提供科学依据,对塌陷区灾害防治具有重要意义。

In order to carry out scientific and reasonable prediction of the earth surface subsidence scope,combing with the mining subsidence theory and probability integral method,the basic mathematical prediction model of mine subsidence area is established to carry out the prediction of the surfce subsid-ence range.Combing with the measured data around a coal mine,the probability integral method is used to predict the mine goaf.The prediction results is compared with the measured results,the comparision anal-ysis results show that the measured results is almost covered by the prediction results,and a certain degree of safety redundancy is existed.So,the probability integral method can meet the requirements of subsid-ence prediction in a certain degree,besides that,it also can provide a scientific basis for predicting the mine subsidence area and the disaster prevention of mine subsidence area.