基于漂移度-未确知测度模型的煤层注水效果评价

Evaluation of the effect of water infusion of coal seams based on drifting degree and uncertainty measurement model

煤层注水效果直接影响到矿井的防灾减灾和高效生产。为了准确评价煤层注水效果,将未确知测度理论与漂移度组合赋权原理相结合,建立漂移度-未确知测度评价模型。运用未确知测度理论构建各指标未确知测度函数,以获得单指标测度评价矩阵;利用漂移度确定组合赋权中权重系数的分配,得到更为精准的指标组合权重;依照置信度识别准则,通过多指标综合测度评价向量进行等级判定,并利用样本等级期望和等级测度细化评价结果。以采煤工作面煤层注水工程为例,对其注水效果进行评价并与已有评价方法对比,该模型评价结果更加符合实际情况,有效克服了指标等级区间划分、权重系数分配等不确定信息对煤层注水效果评价的影响,为煤层注水效果评价提供了一种新的思路和方法。

The effect of water infusion of coal seams has a direct influence on the disaster prevention and mitigation and efficient production in mines.Uncertainty measurement theory integrated with combined weighting of drifting degree is applied to establish the drifting degree-uncertainty measurement model in order to evaluate the effect of water infusion of coal seams accurately.The uncertainty measurement function of each index is established by using the uncertainty measurement theory which can get the matrix of single index measurement evaluation.Then the weight coefficients are allocated by using the drifting degree to obtain a more accurate combined weight.Finally,on the basis of credible recognition criterion,the gradings of the effect of the projects were judged with the evaluation vector of multi-indexes comprehensive measurement evaluation,and the evaluation results were refined by the expected value and measurement of the sample’s grade.Taking the engineering project of water infusion of the coal seam of the working face as an example,the effect is compared with other evaluation methods and the results show that the method in this paper is more consistent with practical situation.This model surmounts the influence of some uncertainty information such as the index grade’s interval dividing and the allocation of weight coefficient on the evaluation.This method provides a new reference for evaluating the effect of water infusion of coal seams.