冲击地压组合预测方法最佳维数确定的研究

Study on the Determination of Optimal Dimension of Combined Prediction Method for Rock Burst

地下工程冲击地压具有突发性和破坏性,预测不准势必会造成不必要的防护浪费或直接造成灾难。为了准确预测冲击地压灾变,消除不同预测模型之间的差异,以杏山矿为研究对象,基于实际监测资料结果应用组合预测方法通过不同维数预测分析,最终确定合理的维数,由此可以提高预测结果可靠性,为工程安全预测提供保障。实践应用结果表明:采用组合预测方法后,3个测点的预测精度分别达到93.75%,91.66%和94.51%,其整体精度明显优于依据4维GM(1,1)模型和8维ARMA模型预测的结果。

Rock burst in underground engineering is spontaneous and destructive.Inaccurate prediction is bound to cause unnecessary waste of protection or cause disaster directly.In order to accurately predict the catastrophe of rock burst and eliminate the difference between different prediction models,Xingshan mine was taken as the research object.Based on the actual monitoring data,the combined prediction method was applied to determine the reasonable dimension through the prediction and analysis on different dimensions.Thus the reliability of the results could be improved so that the engineering safety prediction could be ensured.The practice results showed that after adopting the combined prediction method,the prediction accuracy of three measuring points reached 93.75%,91.66%and 94.51%respectively,and the overall accuracy was obviously better than that of the 4 dimensional GM(1,1)model and the 8 dimensional ARMA model.