2019年夏季全国气候趋势展望

Seasonal Outlook of China for Summer 2019

2019年春夏季,赤道中东太平洋将维持弱-中等强度厄尔尼诺(El Ni?o)。中国科学院大气物理研究所的全国气候趋势预测结果表明,预计2019年汛期(6—8月),长江中下游以南大部分地区降水偏多,其中江南地区偏多2—5成,可能发生局地洪涝灾害;新疆北部、东北北部、四川东部和陕西南部等地降水正常略偏多。我国其他大部分地区降水正常略偏少,其中河套地区降水偏少2—5成。预计2019年登陆台风数正常略偏多。

The ENSO prediction system of Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences(IAP,CAS)predicts that El Ni?o conditions are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and summer 2019.According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction of IAP,a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for most parts of southern China,North parts of Northeast China and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.The other parts of China will experience a drier-than-normal condition during the boreal summer.The center of less-than-normal precipitation is located in the Hetao area.The landing typhoon will be more than normal in the summer of 2019.