新兴市场金融共生危机的早期预警

Pre-warning ahead for Financial Twins Crises in the Emerging Market

根据国际上对金融危机的最新研究,货币危机和银行危机在新兴市场国家中往往是共生的。根据Logistic回归模型和决策成本比较,可以建立新兴市场国家共生危机的预警指标及预警体系,实证分析也印证了此预警系统具有一定的预警能力。

Internationally, the latest research on financial crises indicates that monetary and banking crises are often syngenetic. Pre-warning quota and pre-warning system for twins crises in emerging market countries can be set up in accordance with logistic regression pattern and after a decision cost comparison. A practical analysis verifies the pre-waming system with capabilities of warning ahead.