植保有害生物风险分析理论体系的探讨

A theoretical approach to the system of pest risk analysis in plant protection

植保有害生物风险分析需要正确地收集大量数据 ,并急需建立实用的或可操作的有害生物风险分析体系 ,针对这种情况 ,本文将风险相关因素归纳为天气、地理和生物 3大类 ,提出了有害生物的天气—地理—生物复合体系。该体系以生态网为出发点 ,对有害生物风险条件、事件及风险种类按层次和等级进行风险因子划分 ,然后进行风险因子模拟、风险分析和计算 ,实现有害生物的多因子调控管理。从而在风险分析、风险预测和风险决策的基础上 ,完成从风险确定、风险评价、风险管理到风险交流的风险全过程管理。

For correct collection of data that are needed in pest risk analysis,also for effective recognition of the system of PRA,this paper raises a theoretical discussion.Firstly,risk factors can be classified into three categories,that is,meteorological,geographical,and biological.Based on the three categories of risk factors,a compound system of weather-geography-biology(WGB)can be set up for the pest risk analysis in plant protection.Secondly,based on the concept of Ecologically Web,the WGB system can be analyzed,according to condition of risk existence,event of risk occurrence,and types of these risks;and then the risk factors can be divided into different level and grade.Thirdly,risk factors should be simulated and calculated.Finally,the multi-factor system can be used for forecasting the risks and making decision in risk management,based on risk identification,and risk assessment,risk analysis.