上海市区肺癌的流行现状和趋势

Epidemiologic Status and Trend of Lung Cancer in Urban Area of Shanghai

目的:.探索上海市区肺癌的发病和死亡情况以及变化趋势。方法:收集上海市肿瘤登记中的肺癌发病和死亡资料,计算发病率和死亡率;用线性回归和非线性回归拟合方法研究肺癌的流行趋势以及变化特点。结果:①1999年上海市区男性肺癌标化发病率和死亡率分别为53.10/10万和42.15/10万,女性分别为19.90/10万和14.77/10万。②肺癌发病和死亡例数50岁以上分别占91.9%和93.8%;且发病和死亡粗率随年龄增加而呈指数上升(Y=0.079+e0.115x和Y=0.097+e0.108x)。③无论发病率和死亡率,在成年人中男性均高于女性,男女平均比分别为2.54∶1和2.44∶1。④1980～1999年间,发病和死亡人数上升趋势非常显著,发病和死亡粗率上升也较明显。标化发病率无显著性变化,而死亡率显著下降趋势。结论:1980～1999年,上海市区肺癌的发病和死亡粗率显著上升,而趋势分析显示上海市区女性肺癌的标化死亡率均有下降趋势。

Objective:To study the mortality and incidence of lung cancer,as well as the trend in urban area of Shanghai.Methods:The data were collected from the Shanghai cancer registry system.Linear and non-linear regressions were used to study the epidemiologic trend of lung cancer.Results:①During1999,the age-adjusted incidence and mortality of lung cancer in urban area of Shanghai were53.10/100000and42.15/100000in male,19.90/100000and14.77/100000in female respectively.②91.9%of incidence and93.8%of mortality of the lung cancer occurred in patients of age over50years,and it increased exponentially with the age(Y=0.079+e 0.115x and Y=0.097+e 0.108x ).③The incidence and mortality rate of lung cancer in male was higher than in female,and the average ratio in male and female were2.54∶1and2.44∶1respectively.④From1980through1999,the rising trend of prevalence and fatality rate was significant,as well as the crude incidence and death rate.The age-adjusted incidence had no significant changes,while the mortality rate decreased significantly.Conclusions:In urban area of Shanghai,the crude incidence and mortality rate of lung cancer increased significantly from1980to1999,and the trend analysis shows that age-adjusted mortality rate in female is decreasing.