中国经济的增长——GDP数据的可信度以及增长的微观基础

China’s Economic Growth—Reliability of Growth Statistics and Micro Foundation of Growth

本文从ＧＤＰ计算体系和经济增加值（ＥＶＡ）分析方法着眼，对近年来中国经济增长速度及其与企业微观绩效之间的关系进行了理论和实证性的分析。研究结果表明，首先，我国近年来的经济增长数据基本可靠；第二，我国宏观和微观经济之间并不存在本质性的背离；第三，我国经济的可持续发展的增长点来自于上市公司、集体企业、民营企业、外商及港澳台投资企业、股份制企业等；最后，中国经济的增长能否继续如现状持续下去，很大程度上取决于资本成本能否继续下降。

This paper uses the framework of EVA analysis to analyze the relia- bility of GDP statistics and the apparent contradiction between China's high economic growth and declining corporate profitability.The result shows that apart from the year of 1998,China's economic growth data between 1996 and 2001 is basically reliable,and there is little ground for the criticism of Rawski(2001)on the economic growth of China. On the other hand,the reason for the simultaneous emergence of high economic growth and poor corporate profitability is mainly due to over-investment.Also,the tax system of China which relies heavily on indirect tax has also led the government to emphasize too much on high growth and too little on economic efficiency.Such a growth pattern has been able to sustain over the past decades to a large extent due to the declining cost of capital.Though profitability has been declining,the cost of capital declines even faster. That means that the corporate performance,measured by EVA,has been improving. In the long term,searching for a sustainable economic growth model with strong micro foundation should be the key objective of the Chinese government ahead.An immi- nent challenge is to strengthen efforts to develop securities market and to attract foreign capital in order to gain more low-cost capital to help Chinese firms to survive.