1999年杭嘉湖平原一次连续暴雨过程诊断分析

DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS OF A CONTINUOUS HEAVY RAIN PROCESS OVER JIANGHUAI AND HANGJIAHU PLAINS USING "NMOCSF

用新的曲面拟合法 (NMOCSF)对江淮和杭嘉湖平原一次连续暴雨过程作物理诊断 ,结合天气形势讨论了准静止华北高压的形成及其对江淮和杭嘉湖平原连续暴雨的贡献。指出 ,当江淮和杭嘉湖平原处在梅雨期时 ,应特别注意华北高压的强度和位置 ,一旦构成阻塞形势 ,就极可能发生大范围、持续性的强降水过程。

A continuous heavy rain process at Jianghuai and Hangjiahu plains is diagnosed with a new method of curved surface fitting (NMOCSF). Some valuable standpoints are presented. Combining with the weather situation, the formation of the quasi stationary North China high and its contribution to the continuous heavy rain process over Jianghuai and Hangjiahu plains are discussed. It is pointed out that special attention should be given to the intensity and the position of the quasi stationary North China high during the Meiyu season around Jianghuai and Hangjiahu plains. Once the block up feature forms, a continuous heavy rain process will probably takes place in a large area.