混合样本方法检测蚊虫子孢子阳性率数学模型的再研究

Restudy on a Model for Estimating the Sporozoite Infection Rate in Mosquitoes Using Pooled Sampling

目的 对混合样本方法检测蚊体内子孢子阳性率进行理论分析与方案设计。 方法 以均方误差达到预定精度要求为准则,确定混合样本大小与混合样本量。 结果 本文给出的混合检测方案是基于严格的统计分析得到的结果,与传统的逐一检测方法相比,可以大大减少检测次数并在一定程度上减少样本总量。 结论 依据感染率预估值确定混合样本大小与混合样本量的研究思路,具一定的可行性。与传统的无偏估计相比,用混合样本阳性数在样本总量中的比例作为感染率估计值具有计算简单、精度较高的优点。

Objective To analyze the pooled sampling method for estimating the vector prevalence theoretically and provide the pooling schemes. Methods The criterion of mean square error (MSE) was used to determine the pool size and the number of pools. Results In comparison with the traditional method based upon testing samples one by one, the pooling method suggested in the present paper greatly reduced the laborious work load. Conclusion Based on the criterion of MSE and the predicted vector infection rate, the method was proved feasible in determining pool size and number of pools. The estimator x/mn is more manageable and precise than the traditional unbiased estimator.