县域土地资源可持续利用系统动态仿真决策模型研究

Study on the Dynamic Simulating Decision Model of the Land Resources Sustainable Utilizing System at County Level

从区域可持续发展理论出发 ,以系统动力学的理论与方法为系统分析和建模的主要方法 ,通过对县域人口、经济、环境与土地资源四者组成的开放的复杂系统分析 ,建立了土地资源利用系统主要因果关系图和土地资源利用动态流程图 ,并且构建了DYNAMO动态仿真模型 ,通过计算机实现了土地资源利用系统的政策分析和动态模拟 ,得出优化方案。

The Land resources utilizing system is such a big and complicated system concerning society, economy and ecology that we can not efficiently resolve this problem by traditional methods. In view of the theory of the area sustainable development, by means of system dynamics, we constructed the dynamic simulating decision model which could systematically analyse the main causal relationship and dynamic flow diagram in the land resources utilizing system, and realized policy analysis and dynamic simulating on computer, and then gained the optimized program.