一种典型黄土滑坡的滑距预测方法

A forecasting method of sliding distance on typical loess landslides

针对"典型黄土滑坡"的特征,如分布于黄土台塬(高阶地)边;具有"上部黄土,下部基岩"的坡体结构;台塬面相对平整,且长期进行农业灌溉(大于15年);滑动体沿黄土下部隔水层、基岩顶部或基岩内部软弱层面滑动;台塬边无阻碍滑动体滑出的障碍物,即具有良好的临空条件;滑坡发生在无地震活动期,或者说滑坡由自身重力、降雨、地下水及冻融作用而产生等状况收集了20组与滑坡滑动距离有关的资料,以多元回归分析理论为基础,建立了滑距预测模型。该模型因具有较强的针对性和较小的适用范围,并考虑了多种影响因素,故具有较高的准确性和广泛的实用性。

Characteristics of 'typical loess landslide' is as follow:① distributing in the margin of loess platform(high terrace);② having the structure of bedrock at the bottom and the loess above;③ developing after longterm agriculture irrigation in the plane of loess platform;④ sliding along the nonseepage strata below loess strata;⑤ having a widen area at the front of loess landslide;⑥ not influence by earthquake.For this kind of landslides,20 valuable data are collected,which come from practical investigating and interrelated with sliding distance.Based on the mathematical statistic analysis,a forecasting model has been built.This model is provided with more factors in accordance with the sliding distance of landslide.With Yehugou loess landslide as an example,the calculated result of this model proved it to be a simple,valid and convenient method.