全国晚稻气候年景评价方法研究

Evaluation Method of National Late Rice Climate Year′s Harvest

通过对晚稻产量和气象资料的处理 ,划分出全国晚稻主产区的丰歉年型及其主要气象要素的特征等级。在不同区域气候年景特征等级分析的基础上 ,建立了晚稻气候年景综合评价模型 ,并在 2 0 0 1年农业气象业务服务中的丰歉年型评价中取得了较好的效果。

Based on the late rice yields and climate data ,the indexes of the rice yield and their climate parameters in the main growing area are analysed.Then, based on the analysis of the characteristics of the late rice climatic year′s harvest in different provinces, a regression model to evaluate the climate potential is set up, and the model was used in the operational agrometeorological yield forecast in 2001. The results are very satisfactory.