目前短期气候预测可预报性的研究概况

Survey of Study on Predictability of Short-term Climate Prediction at Present

气候的可预报性研究是气候变化研究的一个重要方面 ,作者首先介绍了短期气候预测之所以可行的两个主要原因 ,以及短期气候预测可预报性问题的实质 ;然后 ,较详细地介绍了目前研究月、季尺度时间平均可预报性的方差分析方法 ,包括了对实际大气和模式大气可预报性的研究 ;最后 ,对时间平均可预报性的研究结论进行了总结。

The study on the climate predictability is a very important aspect of the climate change research. Firstly, the two key reasons for which the short term climate prediction is feasible, as well as the substance of the short term climate predictability are introduced. Secondly, the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) technique, which is used to study the monthly or seasonal predictability, including the predictability of both the real atmosphere and the model atmosphere are explained. Finally, the research conclusions about short term climate predictability at present are reviewed.