具有利益冲突的发展中国家与发达国家之间的博弈分析

The Game Analysis for the Conflicted Developing Countries and the Developed Countries

运用微分对策理论研究具有利益冲突的发展中国家与发达国家的均衡策略 .首先建立两国的动态博弈模型 ,然后利用微分对策理论分析模型的均衡解 .研究结果显示 :1 .发达国家在一定时期里的蓄意破坏是其最优策略 ;2 .发展中国家与发达国家在不同时期里各自的最优策略是不同的 ,“以牙还牙”的策略并非最优策略 ;3.发展中国家为了避免在此对策略过程中蒙受更大的损失 ,利用军事或经济的策略基本上是无效的 .发展中国家应当寻求经济、军事以外的途径 ,比如政治和谈等手段 .该文的研究方法可适用于更大范围的对策问题的研究 .

The theory of differential games is used to study the possible equilibrium strategies for the two kinds of conflicted countries, the developing countries and the developed countries. First the dynamical game model is created for them. Then the optimal solution of the model is given by the theory of differential games. Equilibrium solution shows that: 1. If there still exist conflicts, the intentional destroying of the developed countries is their optimal strategy at some special phases; 2. The strategies for different stages may be very different and the strategy 'a Roland for an Oliver' is not always an optimal strategy; 3. To avoid huge damage during the game period, it is almost invalid for the developing countries to pursue means of economy or military. They should find ways other than economy or military, such as political talks. Methods used in this paper are applicable for more general game problems.