资本形成路径与资本存量调整模型——基于中国转型时期的分析

The Capital Formation and The Capital Adjustment Model During The China's Transition

本文综合考察了我国生产性资本的总量水平、形成路径及其调整机制。通过改进的方法所估算的资本存量在改革开放以来已经翻了不止两番 ,年平均增长率为7 3 6 % ,积累极为迅速。资本形成路径明显分为两个阶段 ,增量改革推动的配置效率改进使资本—产出比率在 1 994年之前持续下降 ,而近年来的资本形成过快是由于经济增长越来越倚重资本深化 ,必须通过全方位结构调整加快转型进程。本文进一步给出了我国转型期资本存量调整的供求决定框架 ,实证结果表明 ,需求导向的资本存量调整机制和投资行为已经在中国的转型经济中基本形成 。

The capital stock has been doubled since the economic reform, and the a.p.r. is 7 36. There are two different stages of capital formation. The Increment Reform improved the allocation efficiency and the capital-output ratio decreased before 1994. However, the economic growth is more and more depending on the capital deepening process and the ratio has increased recently. A supply-demand decision framework is afforded to describe the capital adjustment during China's transition. By empirical results, the demand-oriented capital adjustment mechanism and the investment behavior have appeared in China. The output and the capital cost are the main factors to determine the capital adjustment and the investment demand.