我国城市化水平滞后的原因分析及未来展望

An Analysis on the Lag of China's Urbanization and a Primary Prospect of its Future

我国的城市化水平,不仅长期低于世界平均水平,与经济发展及工业化水平相比,就更显落后,这是一个违背世界经济发展规律的独特现象。这一现状的形成,既有历史原因,也有现实原因;但总体来说,可以归纳为这样几个方面:即"城乡分割"的二元户籍管理制度、建国后偏重重工业的产业政策、落后的农业生产水平、严格控制大城市的城市建设方针、由体制转换所导致的下岗职工增加和城乡口径不一的计划生育政策。城乡实际收入水平的巨大差距是我国人口城市化的根本动力;以加入WTO为标志,我国对世界经济的参与程度将与日俱增,城市化发展的普遍规律开始在我国发挥作用。目前,我国已进入城市化发展的加速时期;随着经济体制改革的深化,我国城市化水平在十几年内必将有一次大幅度的提高。本文在详细分析我国城市化水平现状、深入剖析其形成原因的基础上,对未来的城市化进程作了初步展望。

China's urbanization level is much lower than the average level of that in the worldCompared with the economic development and the industrialization level, the situation is more seriousIt is not only due to historic reasons, but also due to realistic reasonsAs a whole, it can be summed up to these aspects: 'urbancountry divided' dualistic management institution of registered residence, the industry developing policy which emphasizes heavy industry,the lagged agricultural development level, scalecontroll oriented guideline of city planning,increment of laid off workers during the economic system reform, and the differentiated family planning policyToday, the fundamental driving force of the urbanization is the tremendous real income disparity between urban and countryWith the entry of WTO, the relationship between China and world is more and more intimateThe universal law of urbanization begins to react on ChinaFrom 1999, the accelerating period of urbanization has been comingAs the economic system reform goes deeply, the urbanization level in China will be bound to have a big leap in the next ten to twenty yearsBased on the detailed analysis of the urbanization actuality and the corresponding reasons, this paper makes a primary prospect of China's urbanization in the future