1979年～2000年我国菲利普斯曲线的实证研究

Empirical Analysis of Phillips Curve from 1979 to 2000 in China

用传统菲利普斯曲线的四种形式及其理论无法解释我国经济转轨时期的菲利普斯曲线 ,事实上也无法直接拟合我国菲利普斯曲线的曲线模型。通过引入经济增长率变量 ,得出了拟合程度较高的计量模型 ,短期内菲利普斯曲线是一条直线 ,而在长期内是一条向下倾斜的曲线 ,并从经济体制和经济周期的角度给出了理论解释 。

Traditional Fillips curve has four kinds of forms. The Fillips curve of our country is more special, it is a straight line in short-term, but in a long time it is a curve sloping downwards. This paper gives the theoretical explainsation in terms of economic system. By introducing the variable of economic growth rate, this paper analyzes the form and meaning of Fillips curve in the economic transition period of our country, through the quantitative model with relatively high degree of fitting, which has certain guidance functions in macro-economic policy making. Its innovation Lies in the form and explanation of the Fillips curve.