吉林省农作物产量预测的初步研究

PRELIMINARY STUDY ON FORECAST OF CROP YIELD IN JILIN PROVINCE

本文运用Fuzzy聚类Bayes判别及逐步回归方法,建立了低中高社会产量阶段模型和丰平欠气象产量预报模式。对全省历年粮食产量进行统计预报表明,拟合准确率达97％以上。

The forecast modes of society yields(high, medium and lower stage) and weather yields(bumper, general and poor harvest)for crops by means of IOSDASA fuzzy classififcation, Bayes distinguishing method and step-wise regression were estabilished and reported in this Paper. The result Showed that the similar percentage of simulant forecast was more than 97％ based the statistic of crop yields over the years and the correlation analysis of yields with social and weather elements.