胃癌个体危险度及人群筛检数量化评价的研究

Quantitative assessment of individual risk and population screening program on gastric carcinoma

目的 建立胃癌个体危险度判定及人群筛检的数量化模型。方法 在人群为基础的胃癌危险因素病例对照研究的基础上筛选出有统计学意义变量 ,应用概率论、模糊数学等原理和方法对胃癌危险因素和保护因素数量化 ,建立用于个体胃癌危险度测量和人群筛检的数量化评价方法 (数学模型)。采用两种不同的加权系数计算方法 ,分别确定该数量化方法的判别阈值为 0 .2 0和 0 .1 7,对 63例胃癌患者和 693名正常人进行实际判别。结果 灵敏度和特异度均分别达到 69%和 63 %左右 ,加权系数计算方法不同并不影响实际判别效果。结论 建立的胃癌个体危险度及人群筛检的数量化模型灵敏度和特异度尚理想 ;方法简便、易行、经济 ,有利于获得满意的受检率 ;可用于个体和群体 (社区 )

Objective To set up a mathematic model for determining individual risk and population risk of gastric carcinoma. Methods Based on principles and methods of probability and fuzzy mathematics, a case control study was quantified and a mathematic model for the screening of gastric carcinoma was set up. Using two different calculation methods of weight coefficients, the thresholds were identified as 0.20 and 0.17 , respectively. This mathematic model was then used to examine 63 cases and 693 normal persons. Results The sensitivities and specificities were 69% and 63%. The different calculative methods of weight coefficients did not affect the results of the identification. Conclusion The sensitivities and specificities were satisfactory indicating that it was convenient, feasible, economic and could meet the contented screening rate. It could be used to determinate the risk for gastric carcinoma both on individual and on population.