Earthquake-Affected Time-Space Domain, Recurrence Interval and Effective Preparation Time of Earthquakes

The study shows that earthquake-affected time-space domain (ETSD), i.e. a time-space range in which strong earthquakes are unable to occur owing to the influence of a prior earthquake occurring, shows a hyperbolic margin curve in the t(time)-r(distance) coordinate plane, which has a maximum affected radius r 0 at t=0 and a maximum influence time t 0 (i.e. the in-situ recurrence interval of earthquakes) at r=0. Based on the time-distance distributions of posterior earthquakes relative to prior ones in the regions of North China, Northwest China, Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) plateau and Southwest China, the optimized and 90%-confidence margin curves are estimated using optimization and statistical analysis methods. This indicates that the concept and method of ETSD with 3-dimension (time-distance-magnitudes) instead of those of “recurrence interval" with 1-dimension (time) or 2-dimension (time-magnitude) provides a new approach to understanding the fluctuation of seismic activities, estimating the effective earthquake-preparation time of potential hypocenters, and therefore improving the medium- and long-term prediction of strong earthquakes.