中等收入背景下中国产业转型升级的影响因素——基于省际动态面板数据模型的分析

The Influence Factors of the Transformation and Upgrading of China’s Industry Under the Background of Middle-income Trap:Based on the Analysis of the Inter Provincial Dynamic Panel Data Model

中国已步入中等收入国家行列,要想从中等收入国家行列跨入高等收入国家行列,最关键的问题就是产业成功转型升级。本文通过选取2006~2015年中国各省面板数据,分析了中国产业升级的省际区域差异与产业转型升级的影响因素。结果表明:进出口贸易、人均GDP、劳动投入、研发人员投入是促进中国产业升级的主要因素;FDI、ODI、金融结构、金融规模存量、专利这五个经济指标对产业升级具有负的溢出效应;劳动报酬、研发经费的投入、金融效率、政府财政支出、产业集聚对产业升级水平的影响不太明显。

China has entered the middle-income countries.Whether it can enter the high-income countries or not the most critical issue is the successful transformation and upgrading of the industry.This paper selects the panel data of Chinese provinces during 2005-2014,analyzing regional difference of industrial upgrading and industrial restructuring in China in recent years and the factors affecting the industrial transformation and upgrading.Results show that the import and export trade,per capita GDP,labor input,R&D personnel input are main factors to promote China’s industrial upgrading;five economic indicators,such as FDI,ODI,financial structure,financial scale and patent,have negative spillover effects on the industrial upgrading;the effects on the level of industrial upgrading of labor remuneration,research funding,financial efficiency,level of government financial expenditure,industrial agglomeration,are not so obvious.