脆弱性评估概论及在中亚地区的应用研究

Introduction of vulnerability assessment and its application prospect in Trans-Asia pipeline

脆弱性评估方法能预测和评价外部风险(自然的与人为的)对系统可能造成的影响,评估系统自身对外部胁迫的抵抗力以及从不利影响中恢复的能力。其作用是维护系统的可持续发展,减轻外部风险对系统的不利影响和为提高系统的综合整治提供决策依据。近年来,中国在中亚各国的投资逐年增加,但中亚国家大都存在"三股势力"的威胁、周期性的政治暴力事件、日益紧张的宗派对立、政权更迭、政局不稳和国内骚乱等威胁,必须要进行脆弱性评估和分析,做好脆弱性管理,提前预见风险、控制好风险、把风险控制在一个可以接受的范围,确保公司利益最大化、人员和资产安全。通过介绍脆弱性评估方法与流程,结合中亚管道实际情况与特点,说明脆弱性评估方法在中亚管道具有良好的应用前景,将对中亚管道安全运营起到很好的作用。

Vulnerability Assessment is an efficient method to predict and evaluate the impact on the system which is caused by the external risks ( natural and human factors) , evaluate system's resistance to external threats and the a-bility to recover from the adverse impacts.It can maintain the sustainability of the system, to mitigate the impacts of the external risks and to provide a basis of decision making for the overall improvement of the system.For decades, China is increasing the investment to the Trans-Asia countries, but most of the Trans-Asia countries are threatened by the "three forces", the periodic political violence, increasing sectarian confrontation, regime change, political instability and internal disturbances.To ensure the TAPLINE's safety, stability and effectiveness, the method and procedure of Vulnerability Assessment are introduced in consideration of the actual situation and the characteristics of the TAPLINE, indicating that the Vulnerability Assessment has good application prospect in TAPLINE and can play a good role in the coming time.