中国妇女生育意愿决定研究:基于工资收入获取视角

A Research on Women's Fertility Willingness in China:In Perspective of Wage Earning

正常情况下,透过生育水平及意愿即可知晓未来人口发展动态,然而研究中国妇女生育还必须考虑人口生育数量计划管理的硬约束。本研究以已经生育了一胎的育龄妇女为研究对象,依据典型调查获取的微观数据搜寻生育意愿的决定变量。结果显示:按照不同类型进行分组测算的还想再生育一胎的妇女比例都在30%左右,妇女的出生年变量能够反映出生育意愿的跨期差异,受教育水平等变量对生育意愿的影响极为显著。当控制城乡差异(户口类型变量)、民族虚拟变量和第一胎出生婴儿性别时,结果仍然稳健。用妇女工资水平作为劳动参与的代理变量,当我们控制了年龄、城乡户口差异等变量后,发现育龄妇女的教育回报率稳定在8%~9.2%之间。本文的政策含义是,人口生育政策调整需要动态考量处于不同年龄段妇女的生育意愿变化,育龄妇女会在劳动参与和家庭再生产之间做出权衡,政策制定者需要重点关注城市地区受教育水平较高的育龄妇女群体的实际与政策生育率的缺口变化。

Under normal conditions,we can predict the dynamic development of population in the future in terms of the fertility level and willingness. To study the women's fertility,it is necessary to take into account of the tight planning and controlling constraint on the number of births. Through investigating subject of women that have already labored their first child,this paper aims at finding out the determining variables for their birth willingness according to the micro data acquired from our typical survey. The results show that: around 30 percent of women that we have investigated wish to have one more child according to the calculation of each group; the years in which they were born explain the inter-temporal difference of fertility willingness; education and other variables significantly impact on their willingness. When controlling the difference between urban and rural hukou,the dummy of ethnic minority and the gender of first-born child,the results are still robust. Using the wage of women as a proxy variable of work participation,this paper finds that the education return for the women at child-bearing age stabilizes between 8 percent and 9. 2 percent when we control the age and the difference between rural and urban hukou. The policy implication is that the adjustment of child-bearing policy needs to dynamically measure the change of women's birth willingness of different age group; the women at bearing age will naturally trade off between work and reproduction; it is necessary to pay close attention to the change of the gap between the policydirected birth rate and the real birth rate of highly educated women in urban areas.