中国省际人力资本估算1978-2010——对现有方法的改进

The Estimation of China's Provincial Human Capital Stock 1978-2010:Improvement of Existing Methods

估算省际人力资本存量对于利用面板数据模型分析中国宏观经济有着重要意义。本文的研究发现,朱平芳和徐大丰(2007)提出的中国城市人力资本估算方法在估计省际人力资本存量时与实际情况存在较大偏差,其直接原因可能是物质资本弹性与人力资本弹性的估计存在应用层面上的缺陷。为此,本文在修改生产函数基本形式与放宽基本假设的基础上,对物质资本弹性与人力资本弹性的设置做出了相应调整,并利用面板数据模型对修正得到的中国省际人力资本存量估算结果进行了检验。研究发现,该数据基本符合实际,可以应用于更广泛的实证研究。

The estimation of provincial human capital stock is essential to the macroeconomic analysis of China using panel data methods. Zhu Pingfang and Xu Dafeng( 2007) proposed a method in estimating city-level human capital stock. However, when this method is used in estimating provincial human capital stock,we find the results do not conform to China's actual conditions. We argue the direct reason is that the elasticity of physical capital and human capital could not reflect the reality of China. Thus,through adjusting the production function and relaxing basic assumptions,we modify the elasticity of human capital and physical capital. At last,through econometric test,we find the estimation using this revised method is in accord with the reality of China. So this estimation can be used in other empirical researches.