中国居民消费增长的理论机理与实证检验——来自人口结构变化的解释

The Theory Mechanism and Empirical Analysis of Chinese Residents' Consumption Growth:An Explanation from Demographic Changes

近年来中国一直致力于扩大消费需求,但消费需求仍然不足,其原因何在?本文通过扩展戴蒙德世代交叠模型构建的总体消费模型,考察了人口结构变化对居民消费的影响。我们使用1989-2012年中国省级面板数据进行实证研究,结果表明:少儿抚养比对我国居民消费具有显著的正向影响,而老年抚养比对消费具有显著的负向影响;人口性别比对消费产生显著的负效应;人口年龄结构对消费的影响存在偏效应1,而人口性别结构对消费的影响不存在偏效应。而且,即期人均收入和收入增长率与居民消费呈现正相关关系,而利率与居民消费呈现负相关关系。本文特别就干扰政策和养老金"双轨制"制度进行稳健性检验,结果表明:政府救市并不是扩大消费需求的有效途径,养老金"双轨制"制度对我国居民消费具有显著的负效应,而且人口性别比对消费产生的负效应部分来源于"双轨制"。本文最终结论表明:我国"少子化"、"老龄化"和"男性过剩"并存的人口结构新特征是消费需求不足的重要原因之一。

China has been committed to expanding consumption demand in recent years,but it's still insufficient,what are the reasons? This paper constructed an overall consumption demand model by extending Diamond overlapping-generations model,and investigated the impacts of demographic changes on consumption demand. The results of empirical analysis on Chinese provinces panel data from 1989 to 2012 revealed that children's dependency ratio had a significant positive effect on residents' consumption in our country,while elderly dependency ratio had a significant negative effect on residents' consumption. Sex ratio introduced by this paper had a significant negative effect on residents' consumption. Age structure of population had a partial effect on consumption,while sex structure of population didn't have. And the results also showed that current per capita income and income growth positively correlated with residents' consumption,while interest rate negatively correlated with residents' consumption. This paper conducted robustness test specifically for interference policy and dual pension scheme,and the results showed that government bail-out was not an effective way to expand consumption demand. Dual pension scheme had a significant negative impact on residents' consumption,and the negative effect caused by sex ratio parts from dual pension scheme. The conclusion of this paper was the new feature of the coexistence of "few-generating","aging"and"male excess"in demographic changes in China was one of important reasons why the consumption demand was always not insufficient.