收入水平、市场条件对中国农村家庭营养脆弱性的影响——基于中国健康与营养调查微观数据的实证分析

Impact of Income and Market Condition on the Nutrition Vulnerability of Rural Household in China:Evidence from CHNS

农户收入水平因市场波动和生产条件的限制而存在不稳定因素。同时,中国农村食物消费市场发育也不完善,而当前中国农村家庭的食物消费却在市场化的进程中变得日益商品化和货币化。因此,在食物价格不断上涨的背景下,需要加强对农村贫困家庭营养脆弱性的关注。本文利用CHNS(中国健康与营养调查)2006年和2009年的数据,通过FGLS(广义最小二乘法)模型估计了样本家庭未来营养摄入的事前分布均值和方差。分析认为,家庭收入水平、市场条件等因素是影响农村家庭营养脆弱程度的重要因素。同时本文还在模型分析的基础上测度了中国农村家庭的营养脆弱性,结果表明,营养脆弱性测度可以准确预测三分之二的家庭的未来营养状况。

Because of the limitation of market volatility and production conditions,the farmers' income is not stable. The development of food consumption market in China rural is not perfect,but current food consumption of rural households has become increasingly commoditized and monetization during the process of marketization. Therefore,We need to pay more attention to the nutrition vulnerability of the rural households in the context of rising food prices. In this paper,we used the Feasible Generalized Least Squares model to estimate households' ex ante distributions of future food consumption,using CHNS data. Then we measured the nutrition vulnerability on this basis. The results show that nutrition vulnerability measure can be accurately predicted two-thirds of the households' nutritional status in the future. The household income per capita and market conditions are important determinants of nutrition vulnerability.