人口老龄化和养老金融保障体系:一项乐观分析

An Optimistic Perspective on Population Aging and Old-Age Financial Protection

人口老龄化既会挑战生产率,也会威胁国家养老金融保障体系。本文以乐观的态度看待老龄化,提出了成功解决老龄化的关键因素。然而,将挑战转变成机遇需要转变社会思维和政策方向,如需要认识到人口老龄化和预期寿命增加是迄今为止人类遇到的最大挑战。认清这一问题需要我们重新检查和评估现有的社会制度,从最古老的(如婚姻制度)到最新的(如退休收入计划)社会制度,而仅仅单纯地修改现有的退休收入计划对解决老龄化问题不仅不够而且无用。为了证明这些结论,本文综述了人口老龄化的测量方法并提出了修改建议,分析了人口老龄化的影响,介绍了如何选择合适的养老金融保障体系,并且提出了相关建议。

Population aging is typically associated with economic challenges for productivity and financial threats for the old-age financial protection system of a country.This paper takes an optimistic position and outlines key ingredients to make it a successful experience.Yet to turn this challenge into an opportunity requires a significant change in a society's mindset and policies,such as recognizing that population aging and increased life expectancy are quite likely the biggest challenge to mankind in recorded history.This calls for a review and revision of societal institutions,from the likely oldest one(marriage) to one of the youngest(retirement income schemes).Mere tinkering at the margin of existing retirement income programs will be neither sufficient nor helpful.To develop the arguments,the paper reviews and proposes changes to the measurement of population aging-globally and for East Asian countries;outlines critical policy paths to address population aging successfully;analyzes the implications of population aging for the selection of an old-age financial protection system;and offers guidance to this end.