改革开放以来乡城劳动力流动对农村居民教育的选择性及其变迁

The Dynamics of Educational Selection in China's Rural-to-Urban Labor Migration

文章运用事件史分析方法分析了过去三十余年乡城劳动力流动对农村居民教育的选择性及其变化。研究发现,20世纪80年代,乡城流动对教育具有较强的选择性。此后,随着人口流动规模不断扩大,乡城流动对教育的选择性开始下降。21世纪以来,各学历劳动力的乡城流动概率普遍提高,他们加入流动队伍的时间总体上提早,乡城流动对教育的选择性进一步降低。目前乡城劳动力流动已发展到一个较高的水平,短期内转移劳动力数量的维持或增加已不能带来劳动力教育资本的相应提高,加快发展后义务阶段教育对于应对快速人口转变对劳动力供给的影响、促进未来城乡人力资本有效积累极为关键。

Using data from the 2010 Survey on the Status of Chinese Women,this study examines the educational selection in China's rural-to-urban labor migration during the past three decades with the technique of event history analysis.The results show that educational attainment has played a significant role in promoting rural labors' chance of migration and shortening their waiting time before migration.In early 1980 s,rural men with junior middle or higher education first started migrating to urban areas to work.This phenomenon diffuses rapidly to women and poorly educated men later on.Over time,the chance of migration increases for all rural residents at working ages,and the average age at first migration declines meanwhile.Despite of these overall trends,higher educational attainment(senior middle school or above) shows an increasing importance for rural residents to remain competitive in migration into urban labor market.The results suggest that rural-to-urban labor migration in China has developed to a high plateau now,and it is imperative to promote post-compulsory education in rural areas in order to boost human resources for both rural and urban economic developments.