产能过剩与就业风险

Overcapacity and Employment Risk

本文依据对规模以上工业企业数据和第六次全国人口普查等微观数据的测算发现,长期以来,中国依靠投资驱动发展的工业已经存在较为严重的产能过剩,与此对应的冗余就业数量达到了2700万人左右,而冗余就业更多由受教育程度较低、工资待遇较差的脆弱群体构成。因此,在化解产能过剩的过程中,我们需要防范相应的就业风险,政府需要配合企业调整就业的渐进过程,通过提供培训和公共服务来平滑可能产生的就业波动。

Based on the above-scale secondary industry enterprise data and the 6th population census data,we calculate the capacity utilization level and the corresponding amount of surplus employment in China's secondary industry.The results show that there's serious overcapacity in China's secondary industry driven by investment The amount of surplus employment caused by overcapacity is about 27 million,and most of these surplus employment is composed of vulnerable labor force with lower education and lower wage level.To smooth the possible fluctuation on unemployment during solving the excess capacity,the government should pay much attention to preventing the risk on unemployment by providing training and other public services,coordinating with the gradual process of enterprise's adjustment on employment