社会保障支出的就业效应实证分析——基于贵州省数据

An Empirical Analysis on Employment Effects of Social Security Expenditure——Based on the Data of Guizhou

文章利用贵州省历年就业人数和社会保障支出数据,运用向量自回归模型考察了贵州社会保障支出和不同社会保障主体支出的就业效应。研究表明:(1)在考察期内,贵州省社会保障支出和就业不存在稳定的长期均衡关系。(2)从不同主体支出来看,就业与财政社会保障支出、社会保险基金支出、个人社会保障支出存在协整关系。其中,财政社会保障支出和个人社会保障支出抑制了就业,社会保险基金支出促进了就业。(3)进一步的脉冲响应和方差分解分析发现,财政社会保障支出能够消解最初对就业产生的负效应;社会保险基金支出对于就业的影响呈现倒U的形态正效应;城镇个人社会保障支出对就业整体呈现正效应,农村个人社会保障支出则相反。文章从贵州社会保障发展现实的角度对实证结果予以了解释。

Using VAR and the cointegration analysis methods, we examine in this paper the employment effects of social security expenditure, different body expenditure,which based on the data of Guizhou. The empirical results show that:(1) Within the study period, social security expenditure and employment do not exist stable long-run equilibrium relationship;(2) In different body expenditure, there is a cointegration relationship between employment and f inance social security expenditure, social insurance fund expenditures, personal social security expenditure. Within the study period, fiscal expenditure on social security and personal social security expenditure have inhibited the employment, social insurance fund spending to promote employment;(3) Further impulse response and variance decomposition analysis, finance social security expenditure can digestion financial community security expenditure initially negative effect on employment; social insurance fund expenditures positive effect for the employment impact of an inverted U shape; In contrast to the countryside, Urban dweller social security spending as a whole showed a positive effect on employment. We explain the analysis results from social security development of Guizhou.