安徽省农村收入和消费结构动态变化及趋势研究——基于供给侧改革视角

The Infl uences of Anhui Rural Residents' Income Structure to its Consumption and Their Dynamic Changes —— Based on the Reform of the Supply Front Perspective

供给侧改革不能脱离需求,特别是消费需求。通过针对需求热点进行供给改革,优先解决突出问题,短期内能够体现改革成效。本文基于2002年-2013年安徽省县级农村居民收入和七类消费支出的面板数据,通过回归分析得出不同收入来源对于消费支出的影响。研究发现,安徽省农村居民的消费结构已发生显著变化;工资性收入相对于财产性收入对各类消费支出具有更高的贡献率;转移性收入对于医疗支出与居住支出具有重大影响。目前,安徽省农村居民的需求热点已逐渐向医疗、交通、通讯、家庭设备及服务等方面转移,因此,可将这几个领域作为安徽省供给侧改革的突破口。

Without taking into account the level of consumption, the reform of the supply front could not be completed smoothly. Therefore, the reform of the supply front could fi rst started in some particular consumer industries where the consumer expenditure has highly increased. Based on the 2002-2013 micro data of anhui rural residents' income and consumption expenditure and the establishment of panel data model between different sources of income and consumption structure, the results shows that: in rural areas of anhui province, the consumption structure has changed signifi cantly. Salary income, compare to the property income, has more infl uence on all kinds of consumer expenditure; Transfer income has a great impact on health care expenditure and housing consummation. At present, the demands of medical treatment, traffic, communication and household equipment& services has become the new major consumption of rural residents in Anhui province.