我国人口转型过程中人口与劳动力年龄结构的经济增长效应

Effect of the Population and Labor Aging on the Economic Growth during Demographic Transition

快速人口转型已给我国带来了人口增长率下降、抚养比结构变化和老年劳动力比重上升等一系列人口问题。作为人口大国,人口与劳动力年龄结构在转型过程中的显著变化,必然会对经济增长产生不可忽视的影响。本文在美国哈佛学者研究成果的基础上,借助引入人口和劳动力年龄结构收敛增长模型,对我国人口转型期人口因素经济增长效应进行了理论与实证分析。实证结果,人口因素对我国经济增长存在影响,尤其是当前人口老龄化对增长的影响存在显著性。提出应以动态发展的眼光,未雨绸缪的看待人口问题,通过扩大青年就业,吸引海外优秀人才,创新人口与就业政策等方式挖掘人力资源优势,保持我国经济增长的可持续性。

Fast demographic transition has brought a series of change in population,such as slower population growth,changing dependency ratio and raising aging workforce ratio.As a most population country,remarkable population and workforce age change will affect economic growth certainly.Base on the Harvard economists' research,paper introduces the population factor into the economic growth model analyzing the population and workforce aging effect on the growth.The results show population has affected economic growth,and the population aging impact was significant.Research suggests planning ahead of the population problem with dynamic perspective,and through expanding the youth employment,attracting talents from oversea,innovating population and employment policy to keep the sustainable economic growth of China.