精准扶贫政策实施的农民增收效应分析

An Analysis of Farmers' Income Increase Effect through Targeted Poverty Alleviation Policies

中国现行各项精准扶贫政策或许并不直接或是仅仅瞄准收入增长,但从长期来看,促进农民增收当是扶贫应有之义。在综合考虑精准扶贫政策、收入结构,以及劳动力数量、质量和结构等因素的条件下,从绝对收入、相对收入以及收入满意度三个层面,探讨了精准扶贫政策实施的增收效应。从计量模型的结果来看,整体而言,精准扶贫相关政策在改善农民绝对收入水平方面效果显著,但对农民相对收入的变动以及收入满意度的影响则比较小。贫困人口脱贫,政策帮扶仍是外力,根本的出路在于提高贫困人口自身的发展能力和脱贫的主动性,若精准扶贫政策不能做到这两点,增收成效将大打折扣。这也是在距离2020年实现现行标准下贫困人口全面脱贫剩余两年多时间里,精准扶贫政策实施过程中需要关注和完善的地方。

China's current targeted poverty alleviation policies may not directly or only aim at income growth, but in the long run, promoting farmers' income is a matter of course in poverty alleviation. By taking targeted poverty alleviation policies, income structure and quantity, quality and structure of labor force into account, this paper discusses the effect of income increase through targeted poverty alleviation policies from three aspects: absolute income, relative income as well as income satisfaction. The results of the econometric model indicate that targeted poverty alleviation policies are effective as a whole in improving farmers' absolute income while less effective in promoting farmers' relative income and income satisfaction.In poverty alleviation, policy support is only an external force and the fundamental path is the improvement of the impoverished population's ability of development and their initiative. Otherwise, the income increase effect will be greatly reduced. This is the field that needs to be concerned and improved in the exercise of the targeted poverty alleviation policies before 2020, when the poverty alleviation of the impoverished population is aimed to be fully realized under current standards.