精准脱贫:变量厘定与问题发觉

Targeted Poverty Alleviation: Variable Determination and Problem Detection

基于"贫困是一个状态",而"脱贫是一个过程"的判断,借助森和迪顿的研究,厘定了精准脱贫的独立性变量和组合性变量。在此基础上,构建了基于贫困户自我发展能力的分析框架模型,提出了精准脱贫实现的两个命题。并通过北京大学CFPS追踪调查数据,分析了我国精准脱贫所要指向的问题。研究发现:精准脱贫应涉及资源禀赋、生产能力和交换条件等三个基础性变量;以及由此派生的可行能力、权利、机会和可持续约束等四个组合性变量。在实现精准脱贫时,贫困户努力付出得到的收益要大于扶贫补助,并且激励贫困户努力的收益所产生的溢出效应要大于精准扶贫项目净值。在CFPS所调查样本的独立性变量分析上,资源禀赋对贫困户的收入影响最大,而生产能力对非贫困户影响最大;在组合性变量分析上,可行能力对我国贫困户和非贫困户的影响都很小,说明同时通过占有土地和提高生产技能提高收入的可能性并不大;权利变量对非贫困户收入的贡献大于贫困户的贡献,说明依靠传统生产方式对减贫脱贫的效果并不明显;而机会变量和过程性约束变量,对非贫困户的影响不能判断,但对贫困户的影响较为明显。

Based on the judgment that"poverty is a state"but"poverty alleviation is a process", this paper determines the independent and combined variables of targeted poverty alleviation with a reference to Sen's and Dyton's researches. An analytical framework model is built on the self-development ability of impoverished households, and two propositions for targeted poverty reduction are proposed. It also analyzes key issues of targeted poverty alleviation in China with the survey data tracked by CFPS of Peking University.The study finds that targeted poverty alleviation should involve three basic variables: resource endowment,production capacity and exchange conditions, and four combined variables derived from the above three:feasible capabilities, rights, opportunities and sustainable constraints. In targeted poverty alleviation, lowincome families get more benefits from their own efforts than the poverty alleviation subsidies, and the spillover effect of the benefits gained by encouraging impoverished households to make their own efforts is greater than the net value of the targeted poverty alleviation projects. In the analysis of the independent variables of CFPS samples, resource endowment has the greatest impact on the income of impoverished households,while production capacity has the greatest impact on non-impoverished ones. In the analysis of combined variables, the feasible capability has little influence on both of the households, indicating income increase by occupying land and improving production skills simultaneously is possibly not viable. The contribution of the right variable to the income of the non-impoverished households is greater than the impoverished ones,indicating that traditional production mode is less effective in poverty reduction and alleviation. The influence of opportunity variable and process constraint variable upon non-impoverished households cannot be judged, but their influence on poor households is obvious.