我国返贫问题及其预警机制研究

Research on China's Poverty-returning Phenomenon and Its Early Warning Mechanism

在我国反贫困道路上,返贫现象一直伴随左右,在扶贫攻坚的关键时期,其对扶贫工作带来的威胁与阻力益发强大。在对返贫现象生成诱因分析的基础上,利用事故链理论和突变理论阐释了制度政策、资源环境、灾祸风险及能力习惯等因素,促使返贫现象呈现沿"事故链"路径线性发展和突变发展两种状态。最后文章构建了我国返贫预警模型,并从预警模型主体构成、预警程序、支撑条件等方面进行阐述,从而为我国"十三五"时期"扶贫攻坚、遏制返贫"的新阶段给予理论支撑和借鉴。

China’s anti-poverty process is always accompanied by poverty-returning phenomenon,which threatens and resists poverty alleviation to a large extent.Through inducement analysis of the phenomenon,this paper explains the institutional policy,resource environment,disaster risk,ability and habits with the accident chain theory and the catastrophe theory.Due to these factors,poverty-returning phenomena exist in two states:linear development and abrupt development along the path of'accident chain'.By constructing the early warning model of China’s poverty-returning and elaborating the main body of the model,its procedure and the supporting conditions,this paper serves as a theoretical support and reference for the new stage of'alleviating poverty and curbing poverty-returning'during the'13 th Five-Year Plan'.