基于水贫困指数地理探测器的丝绸之路经济带甘肃段水贫困时空格局及驱动分析

Spatio-temporal pattern of water poverty and driving mechanism based on WPI-geodetector in the Gansu section of the Silk Road Economic Belt

以水贫困理论为基础,构建了甘肃段水贫困评价指标体系,采用熵值法对甘肃段2000-2015年水贫困的时空特征进行综合评估.运用地理探测器定量识别影响甘肃段水贫困指数变化的因素及驱动力.根据不同的驱动力因素,划分水贫困地域类型.结果表明:甘肃段水贫困程度较严重,东西部差异明显,西部水贫困状况好于东部.甘肃段水贫困空间驱动要素由'使用-环境-途径'驱动转为'能力'驱动.能力系统对甘肃段水贫困得分的影响最大,且影响力呈现增大的趋势;途径系统的影响力在变小,使用系统的变化不大,资源系统和环境系统影响力较小.各城市水贫困年际变化存在明显差异,可归纳为环境驱动型、资源驱动型、使用驱动型、途径驱动型4大类型.不同驱动机制下的城市水资源开发应做到因地制宜、抓住重点、讲究实效,有序推进反水贫困政策.

Based on the natural and socio-economic data of the Gansu section of the Silk Road Economic Belt,a water poverty assessment index system was established.The water poverty index(WPI)model was used to calculate the WPI of Gansu section from 2000 to 2015 and to analyze the spatial-temporal characteristics of WPI.On the basis of the calculated WPI,the factors that affected the WPI change in Gansu section were examined and quantitatively identified using the geographical detector method.According to the different driving forces of WPI,the areas were divided and recommendations were given accordingly.The main results are as follows:the water poverty situation in the west area of Gansu section was better than that in the east area,the difference between the two regions was obvious.The spatial driving force behind the water poverty in the Gansu section had been changed from'use-environment-access'to'capacity'.The capacity system had the greatest impact on the water poverty situation and its influence was increasing,but the influence of the resource system and the environmental system was small.The influence of the access system was becoming smaller,but the use system’s influence had not been changed.There were significant differences between the driving mechanisms of water pover-ty of cities,which could be classified into four types:environment-driven,resource-driven,use-driven and access-driven.The development of water resources under different driving mechanisms should be based on local conditions,focusing on key issues and paying attention to the actual results and promoting poverty reduction policies in an orderly manner.